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However, by itself, the regression equation does not prove the direction of causation.Ĭonclusions about causation must come from a broader context of understanding about the relationship.įor example, a regression equation might show a definite relationship between number of clicks on a web ad and number of conversions. Universities use regression to predict students’ GPA based on their SAT scores.Ī regression model that fits the data well is set up such that changes in X lead to changes in Y. In marketing, regression can be used to predict the change in revenue in response to the size of an ad campaign. In this instance, the main items of interest are the fitted values Y ^. Regression is widely used to form a model to predict individual outcomes for new data, rather than explain data in hand (i.e., a predictive model). In such cases, the focus is not on predicting individual cases, but rather on understanding the overall relationship. Public health officials might want to understand whether a public information campaign is effective in promoting safe sex practices. In this case, the primary focus is on the estimated slope of the regression equation, b ^.Įconomists want to know the relationship between consumer spending and GDP growth. The goal has been to understand a relationship and explain it using the data that the regression was fit to. Historically, a primary use of regression was to illuminate a supposed linear relationship between predictor variables and an outcome variable. The intercept of the fitted line is such that the line passes through the center of mass ( x, y) of the data points.Prediction versus Explanation (Profiling) In this case, the slope of the fitted line is equal to the correlation between y and x corrected by the ratio of standard deviations of these variables. The remainder of the article assumes an ordinary least squares regression. Deming regression (total least squares) also finds a line that fits a set of two-dimensional sample points, but (unlike ordinary least squares, least absolute deviations, and median slope regression) it is not really an instance of simple linear regression, because it does not separate the coordinates into one dependent and one independent variable and could potentially return a vertical line as its fit. Other regression methods that can be used in place of ordinary least squares include least absolute deviations (minimizing the sum of absolute values of residuals) and the Theil–Sen estimator (which chooses a line whose slope is the median of the slopes determined by pairs of sample points). It is common to make the additional stipulation that the ordinary least squares (OLS) method should be used: the accuracy of each predicted value is measured by its squared residual (vertical distance between the point of the data set and the fitted line), and the goal is to make the sum of these squared deviations as small as possible. The adjective simple refers to the fact that the outcome variable is related to a single predictor. That is, it concerns two-dimensional sample points with one independent variable and one dependent variable (conventionally, the x and y coordinates in a Cartesian coordinate system) and finds a linear function (a non-vertical straight line) that, as accurately as possible, predicts the dependent variable values as a function of the independent variable. In statistics, simple linear regression is a linear regression model with a single explanatory variable. Here the dependent variable (GDP growth) is presumed to be in a linear relationship with the changes in the unemployment rate. Okun's law in macroeconomics is an example of the simple linear regression. Linear regression model with a single explanatory variable Part of a series on If your username is blank or incorrect, click the text box next to "Username." Enter the username you want saved.If there are multiple passwords on the page, click the Down arrow.To view the password that was entered, click Preview.If you enter a new password on a site, Chrome can ask to save it. If you use a suggested password, It’s automatically saved. When you create an account with a new site, Chrome can suggest a strong, unique password. To autofill passwords from your Google Account, follow these steps. Step 2: Make Chrome your Autofill Passwords service To use Google Password Manager, sign in to Chrome. 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How Google Password Manager can improve your online security Automatically fill in passwords from your Google Account.Protect all your saved passwords with built-in security.Create and save strong, unique passwords that you don’t have to remember.When you use Google Password Manager, passwords are saved in your Google Account. Google Password Manager makes it simple to use a strong, unique password for all your online accounts. We begin with The Farseer Trilogy, which follows the life of a royal bastard raised by a kindly stablemaster to be an assassin protector of the royal family. Robin Hobb is my own personal favourite fantasy writer, and she gets bonus points here for having multiple trilogies of fantasy books all set within the same incredible world. If you love political games and the journeys that heroes and villains alike take across years, you’ll love A Song of Ice and Fire, one of the very best fantasy series of books ever written.īuy A Song of Ice and Fire here! The Realm of the Elderlings by Robin Hobb Having based much of his world and its political events on British history, which is itself expansive and epic, it’s no wonder that Westeros (and beyond) is so enormous in scope. No series of fantasy books has ever come close to matching the scope of A Song of Ice and Fire when it comes to its political machinations. The world grows larger protagonists are unceremoniously killed off villains become heroes betrayal and changed allegiances become par for the course. The politics make A Song of Ice and Fire stand out amongst all the best fantasy series and turned Game of Thrones into such a runaway hit of a show.Īcross this epic fantasy series, readers follow an enormous cast of characters that grows and diminishes with every heartbeat, as chess pieces move and are removed entirely. Martin cultivated an enormous world, complete with its rich and deep histories, cultures, and (most importantly) intricate political systems. While including A Song of Ice and Fire on a list of the best fantasy series of books ever might seem like a no-brainer, it’s also an undeniable truth. If you do want to read more about those classic fantasy epics, and other essential fantasy novels, you can do so right here. Just bear in mind you won’t find any standalone fantasy books here, or even The Lord of the Rings and Gormenghast, since they were both envisioned as singular epics. These authors have cultivated incredibly rich and detailed worlds, and from those exciting worlds have emerged some of the best fantasy series of books you’ll ever read. Her Majesty’s Royal Coven by Juno DawsonĪnd so, if you’re interested in getting lost in some of the best fantasy series of books ever written, these are the ones to jump into.Tales of the Ketty Jay by Chris Wooding.The Discworld Series by Terry Pratchett.The Realm of the Elderlings by Robin Hobb. Moyse baroque collection)īach, C.P.E., Four Sonatas in D, E, G and G, Wq. *Bach, C.P.E., Concerto in B-flat Major, Wq. Telemann, G.P., 12 Fantasias ( Garrison edition/Theodore Presser or Henle or Musica Rara) Marais, Marin, Les Folies d’Espagne (Bärenreiter) 2 (Zen-On)īach, C.P.E., Sonata in A Minor (Amadeus, Universal, or Ricordi)īach, J.S., Partita in A Minor, BWV 1013 (Bärenreiter or Henle)īoismortier, Joseph Bodin de, Six Suites for Flute Solo (Schott) Marcel Moyse, The Golden Age of the Flutists, Vol. Moyse, Louis, ed., Flute Music by French Composers (Schirmer) Moyse, Louis, ed., Flute Music of the Baroque (Schirmer) Recommended Collections for Flute and PianoĬavally, Robert, ed., 24 Short Concert Pieces (Southern) 15 (any edition)īozza, Eugène, Quatorze Études-Arabesques (Leduc) Genzmer, Harald, Contemporary Etudes, Vol 2 (Schott)Īndersen, Joachim, 24 Etudes, op. 107 (in Andraud, The Modern Flutist, published by Southern)Īltès, Henri, 26 Selected Studies (Schirmer) Genzmer, Harald, Contemporary Etudes, Vol 1 (Schott)īoehm, Theobald, 24 Caprice-Etudes, op. 33 (any edition)Ĭavally, Robert, Melodious and Progressive Studies, Book 2 (Southern) Moyse, Marcel, 24 Little Melodic Studies with Variations (Leduc)Ĭavally, Robert, Melodious and Progressive Studies, Book I (Southern)īerbiguier, Benoit Tranquille, 18 Exercises or Etudes (any edition)Īndersen, Joachim, 24 Etudes, op. Gilbert, Geoffrey, Technical Flexibility for Flutists (Southern) Kujala, Walfrid, The Flutist’s Vade Mecum (Second Edition, Progress Press) Pieces that use extended techniques are indicated ET. Certain titles include links to performances on Leonard’s YouTube Channel or performance guides on Leonard’s blog. Titles in red have been recorded by Leonard Garrison click on links for audio samples of him performing these works. The RCM column indicates their grade levels, which run 1-10 and ARCT (professional-level material). If a piece is not on the NFA list, an estimated difficulty level is provided below in brackets.Īnother excellent graded list is the Carnegie Hall Royal Conservatory Achievement Program Flute Syllabus, available on their website. In general, Level G is appropriate for a first-year music major, and Levels H, I, J, and K for second-, third-, fourth-year and graduate students respectively. The Repertoire list has eleven levels from A (beginner) to K (advanced). The National Flute Association’s Selected Flute Repertoire and Studies: A Graded Guide is an excellent resource for choosing solo repertoire and study material appropriate to a student’s ability. We definitely patronize the establishment since there is no comparison (night and day) between their baked goods and store bought. We drive there at least once every two week to stock up on goodies for freezing. From those, it is a three minute walk if you are not stopping to gawk along the way. Right on the street there are several pull in slots and if you want to make a tour of the village, then a couple of parking lots are at the end of town. In addition is: Danish, Cookies, Scones, Cakes, Pies, Quiche, Biscotti, Coffee, Tea, Jams, Jelly, Local Honey, Treenware, Herb Wreaths. The smell of fresh pastries and coffee fill every room. Of course, we waited a few minutes for them to be iced, then picked the ones we wanted. Lagerhaus Bakery rests in the heart of historic Harmony in a charming building constructed in 1807. We were there on Wednesday around 11:00 AM and freshly baked Claws and Rolls were just coming out of the oven. The Two Fraus Bakery - 253 Mercer St, Harmony. Brownies, scones and daily specials fill the glass case. The Two Fraus Bakery is an all natural, from scratch bakery, never using boxed or pre-mixes ever and keeping our ingredients as local. We were told that the dough alone takes 8 hours to make. Pricey to a degree, but worth the wonderful taste. We have never eaten there (YET) but go in for their scrumptious pastries, baked on-site by someone who REALLY knows what they are doing! Loaded with cinnamon & gooey icings the Bear Claws and Cinnamon Rolls are quite large and very good. Also, they manage a dinner once or twice a month (reservations needed and must call for date and time in advance) that they serve in the old, vaulted wine cellar beneath the building. The ambiance is something from a by-gone era both inside and out with wooded trims, flower boxes and small-town cordial people.īreakfast is 7:00 -11:30 AM Wednesdays through. This is a quaint eatery/bakery that sits on 534 Main Street, a corner in historic Harmony, PA.
Hong Son waterfall is currently unexploited for tourism, however, with the available potential, the local authority of Tan Hop commune in particular and Tan Ky district in general want companies, organizations and tourist groups to call to promote the image, invest in tourism here so that in the coming time, not only guests in the province but also foreign tourists can visit and discover the beauty of the waterfall. Coming here, visitors can soak in the cool and pure water flowing from the mountain, immerse themselves in the nature of clouds and sky, all fatigue and worries of everyday life will seem to be dispelled.Ĭoming to Tan Hop highland commune, Tan Ky district, visitors can not only discover and admire the unique, new and interesting beauty of the natural landscape, but also learn and experience the customs and habits of the Tho ethnic people here. When the sunlight shines through each jet of water, spreading on the granite rocks, the waterfall is like a painting adorning the shimmering and fanciful colors. The waterfall has a height of 150m, nature has created 4 gentle rock layers, overlapping each other so that the water flows down softly, forming a wavy line like a white silk strip falling down the majestic mountain foot. View moreĭue to less human impact, Hong Son Waterfall still retains its pristine features with rich and diverse vegetation. Safe and healthy custom-shade tanning for brides, vacationers and more. Tanning Salon in Hyde Park, Cincinnati, OH providing sunless and spray tanning. Coming here, visitors can soak in the cool and pure water flowing from the mountain, immerse themselves in the nature of clouds and sky, all. 2702 Erie Ave, Ste 306, Cincinnati, OH 45208. This is a natural waterfall with pristine and majestic beauty in Tan Hop commune, unique in the land of Nghe An province.ĭue to less human impact, Hong Son Waterfall still retains its pristine features with rich and diverse vegetation. From a distance, you can see a beautiful waterfall image right in the middle of the cane valley, above are winding terraced fields. From Ho Chi Minh road at km 0, Lat town, Tan Ky district, visitors can go about 30km to Tan Hop commune. Electrolysis hair removal service (760)Īlbuquerque, NM (1109) Atlanta, GA (1567) Austin, TX (1530) Charlotte, NC (1401) Chicago, IL (2588) Cincinnati, OH (1155) Colorado Springs, CO (1007) Columbus, OH (986) Dallas, TX (1628) Denver, CO (1408) Fort Worth, TX (1004) Houston, TX (3457) Indianapolis, IN (1185) Las Vegas, NV (1963) Los Angeles, CA (1949) Louisville, KY (1139) Miami, FL (2206) New York, NY (2379) Orlando, FL (1749) Philadelphia, PA (1512) Phoenix, AZ (1057) Pittsburgh, PA (991) Portland, OR (1368) Sacramento, CA (1077) San Antonio, TX (2116) San Diego, CA (1360) San Francisco, CA (1050) Seattle, WA (1190) St.Hong Son waterfall, also known as Bon waterfall is located in Tan Hop commune, Tan Ky district, Nghe An province.G-Organics Handcrafted Soap (Online Operated).Aesthetics by The Health and Wellness Collective.15 Pete Neiser Dr, Alexandria (KY), 41001, United States. Floyds 99 Barbershop North Frisco Texas Allie has been a stylist for 31 years, 22 years of owning own salon. If the pain inflicted was mental, mental pain will return. When the reaction to your previous action of causing pain to another being does return to you, you will feel the same pain. But it will return in your next life, or even in some life after that. It may not return immediately, maybe not even during this lifetime. In a similar way, if you cause pain to someone else, you can be certain that the same pain will come back to you. And, the reaction is equal to the action. Try striking the top of a table with your bare knuckles? It would hurt, wouldn’t it? The harder you strike, the more the pain. Esoterically, karma refers to the totality of our actions and their concomitant reactions in this and all previous lives, all of which determine our future. Karma is not fate, for God endowed his children with the power to act with free will. Karma literally means “deed or act”, and more broadly describes the principle of cause and effect. These characteristics are collectively called the karma of the soul. The soul carries with it the mental impressions it received during its earthly life. Karma is the law of action and reaction which governs life. All Hindus know that they take many births and receive the results of their own actions in this and future lives. They capsulize our ancient religion’s view of life, death and immortality. They revealed the laws of karma and reincarnation which are now two of Hinduism’s most central beliefs. What happens after death? Why is there so much happiness for some and suffering for others in a lifetime? The Gods revealed to the rishis in their deepest meditations the answers to these puzzling questions. Our wise Rishis of long ago desired to know the mysteries of life and death. you have the skills to adjust your communication style depending on various situations and stakeholders.Insights on Two Fundamental Hindu Concepts From the Teachings of Sivaya Subramuniyaswami.you have a welcoming and generous approach to customer service creating an inclusive space for all.you're passionate about hospitality, bringing all the positive, energetic and upbeat vibes.you have proven food and beverage knowledge, including menu creations.you're experienced in crafting beautiful spaces for hosting events.you have experience and a passion for leading and developing teams.you have experience leading day to day operations within hospitality.you're able to work Monday to Fridays on-site (weekends off).Collaborate with partners to understand their event objectives, budget and requirements.Maintain accurate sales records and be motivated to increase daily turnover.Monitor and develop SOP's for continuous improvement opportunities in the Canva Space.Engage and build relationships with internal (Hospitality Manager, broader Vibe and People Teams) and external stakeholders.Craft seasonally delicious food and beverage menus and liaise with external industries and communities to create catering menus for a variety of events in Canva Space.Lead, inspire and nurture a high performing team (Chef, FOH and Barista).Lead all aspects of day-to-day operations and events held in our public facing cafe, Canva Space, ensuring seemless customer service experiences.So this will give you the flavour of the type of things you'll be working on when you start, but this will likely evolve. But we like to think that's all part of the fun. As Canva scales change continues to be part of our DNA. Riley said it's fun when Fried is pitching: “He's so competitive and he's into every pitch. As long as you can go out there and stay ahead, be aggressive and get those guys back in the dugout as quick as possible, you have the best chance to add on." Especially Austin comes up, two-run homer, and you can be a little bit more aggressive where one ball doesn't beat you. was aboard with a leadoff double on left-hander Ryan Weathers' first pitch.įried said Riley's homer "allows me to go out there and know that a solo home run doesn't beat me. The Braves took a 2-0 lead three batters in on Riley's one-out homer to left field, his fourth. “I wanted to go out and give us the best chance to win.” “I was just hoping to come out healthy,” Fried said. 19, 2014, during the Padres' failed win-now push for the 2015 season. The left-hander was sent from San Diego to Atlanta in a six-player trade on Dec. I told him, next time out, you take the gloves off and turn you loose.” Made it through five and he was very efficient with what he was doing. It kind of went like exactly how we wanted it to go. As sharp as he was, he was throwing the ball really well. “It's hard to believe he had a layoff like that. “He looked really good," Braves manager Brian Snitker said. He allowed one run and four hits over 3 1/3 innings in that game. Minter pitched the ninth for his fourth save.įried, who finished second in NL Cy Young Award balloting last year, was placed on the IL after leaving his opening-day start against Washington with a strained left hamstring. He limited San Diego to four singles while striking out four and walking none.Ī.J. San Diego was shut out at home in consecutive games for the first time since April 2016, both by the Los Angeles Dodgers.įried (1-0) was activated to start against the Padres, who took him in the first round of the 2012 amateur draft. on Thursday after his 80-game PED suspension will add a spark. They hope the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. 500 for the first time since the first two games of the season. They've lost six of eight since taking three of four in Atlanta from April 6-9. The Padres were shut out for the second consecutive day and the third time in eight games. SAN DIEGO - Max Fried held sputtering San Diego in check for five innings in his return from the injured list, and Austin Riley hit a two-run homer as the Atlanta Braves beat the Padres 2-0 Monday night for their seventh straight win. Fried shuts down Padres, Riley hits 2-run homer for Braves Semana 36 de embarazo fotos, Sevtec surveyor hovercraft, Junior football goals. After recording her album she played a special role in "Corazones al Limite" where her hit song "Vivir" was the theme song. Martin ricca dan belinda peregrin, Bruel casser la voix live. She also had much success with singles, such as "Lo Siento", "Boba Niña Nice", "Angel", "Vivir", and duets with Andy y Lucas, "No Entiendo", and her latest duet with Pewee from the Kumbia Kings. Later she traveled to Europe where she recorded her solo debut album, "Belinda" which has been a hit almost everywhere. Pero al poco tiempo se arrepintió y decidió borrar el mensaje. El romance del verano recién acaba de comenzar, pero parece que va muy en serio porque la cantante ya lo presentó a su familia. A través de sus Stories de Instagram Belinda compartió en septiembre del 2020 este video en el que se ve a Christian Nodal con su hermano pequeño. La estrella de pop escribió: NO ESTOY EMBARAZADA con letras mayúsculas, para que quedara claro. Nacho Peregrín ya convive con el novio de su hermana. Around the 100th episode she had some problems and had to leave the telenovela, being replaced by Daniela Luján. Luego de los rumores, Belinda decidió aclarar la situación por medio de sus historias en Instagram. She played Mariana and Silvana - twins with totally different personalities. After having sold out concerts and great CD sales, she signed on to do "Cómplices Al Rescate", a story of two twins split up at birth. Después de los fuertes rumores y de la presión de los medios de comunicación, Belinda subió a sus historias un video donde aparece con su vientre plano promocionando un producto y, también. Ignacio Peregrín, el guapo hermano menor de Belinda. She later played Violeta on "Aventuras en el Tiempo" alongside Christopher Uckerman. She was cast as "Ana" along with Martin Ricca in "Amigos X Siempre" during a casting, beating 5000 other girls. Teniendo en cuenta las altas temperaturas de la jornada, que. She has a brother named Ignacio (Nachito) and a dog named Bambi, a gift from her mom on her birthday. Madrid - 23:31 EDT Apenas han pasado cinco minutos desde que empez a posar ante la cmara y ya le han pedido un selfi. One of many cases where young talents begin their career in acting and then move on to music, Belinda Peregrin Schull was born on Augin Madrid, Spain, the daughter of Ignacio Peregrín and Belinda Schull. Belinda is a Mexican actress and singer who was born in Spain. |
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